Sunday, October 28, 2012
I've documented the five potential electoral maps that I'm keeping in mind down the home stretch using the terrific 270toWin iPad app and thought I'd share them with you. A fairly simple distillation of the most likely ways Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will find their way to a victory speech on November 6th (we hope).
Romney Scenario 1: Core 4 +1
Romney takes back the two preeminent battlegrounds of Ohio & Florida as well as the two historic red states of North Carolina & Virginia plus any other single contested state. In this map, I've made that state Colorado, as that's Romney's most likely +1. Note: All of these scenarios assume Indiana flips back to red this year as it is undisputed and has a 99.7% chance of going Romney as well as Romney winning all of Nebraska's 5 electors, one of which Obama claimed in 2008.
Romney Scenario 2: Sans Ohio Straight Tie-Win
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Ohio is the seminal state for both campaigns and has a better chance of deciding the election than all other battlegrounds combined. Romney's electoral calculus gets much more difficult if he fails to win the Buckeye State but not impossible. This map lays out the sans Ohio scenario of Romney winning by essentially running a straight through all other battlegrounds. Note however, that he can leave New Hampshire to Obama and still achieve a 269-269 electoral college tie settled in the Republican House of Representatives. But in reality, New Hampshire should fall to Romney before Nevada, so that outcome is unlikely. In fact Nate Silver calculates the chance of a tie at 0.3%.
Romney Scenario 3: Wisco Rescue + CO & NH
A win in veep candidate Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin (which hasn't gone Republican since 1984 despite being extremely close in '00 & '04) would help compensate for an Ohio loss and give Romney considerably more breathing room in finding a way to the White House even without the Buckeyes. One such path includes Colorado & New Hampshire.
Romney Scenario 4: Wisco Rescue + CO & IA
Another such path by which Romney could compensate for an Ohio loss with Wisconsin is by adding Colorado and Iowa to the Cheesehead State.
Obama Scenario: WI, OH, NV
The President's path to a second term is considerably simpler in that he need only hold Wisconsin, win the big Ohio prize and take one other non-New Hampshire battleground, most likely Nevada. Winning only NH in addition to WI & OH while ceding all other major battlegrounds to Romney would leave Obama with a 269-269 tie and a loss at the hands of his friends in the GOP House.
Of course there are countless more electoral map permutations, but given the state of the race in the final stretch, these five will get you a long way towards framing and projecting the paths to 270. Either candidate could also cross the bar with one of these minimalist scenarios and keep rolling, racking up more than necessary to assume the presidency, but all we care about is who gets to a majority of the 538 electoral votes and how he does it.
Keeping these five maps in mind, I highly recommend following Nate Silver's indispensable daily analysis and probabilities on FiveThirtyEight, the RealClearPolitics aggregation of state and national polls and the prediction markets. Also, cast your vote on the Pearce Godwin Blog for who you think will come out on top.
Here's to a clean and clear outcome in 9 days time and a rejuvenation of the American spirit and economy over the coming years. As has become a pre-election tradition on this blog, enjoy one of the coolest creative efforts I've ever seen below. Please, get out and vote, however you like.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
A Prayer Remembering 9/11
On September 11th our country needed you more than ever and you, as you always are, were there for us. When people all over the world heard the news, they were struck with shock and sorrow. But during that time that it felt like we were living in a nightmare we knew where to turn for peace. As the World Trade Centers fell, our faith in you grew taller than ever.
You, and only you, could give us the peace and reassurance that we so desperately needed. We walked through the valley of the shadow of death, but we feared no evil because you were with us, and you comforted us. On September 11th, there was only one set of footprints on the beach, because on that awful day, you carried us. Some people ask why you left us that day, but we know that just the opposite happened. After the first attack you were right in the middle of the terror. You were in the firefighters, policemen and others who sacrificed their own lives to save others. Lord please empower us with the same strength and bravery that you gave those men and women that day so that we may sacrifice our own selfish desires and live for you and each other every day of our lives.
You have blessed us and our country so abundantly even though we don't deserve it. Thank you so much. Please protect our country against evil and empower our leaders with the wisdom that only you can provide. Continue to be with families who lost a loved one on that day and are still suffering. Bless them with peace, comfort and hope knowing that they are not along but that you are with them.
It is so amazing Lord how you can turn such an awful event into good. We as Americans have never been closer to each other and to you than we were after 9/11. Help us work to keep our country close to you and remain "one nation under God."
In Jesus Christ's precious and holy name,
September 11, 2002
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Ongoing discussions taking place between the White House and both parties in Congress aimed at finding a solution to raise the debt limit, which America will breach on August 2nd, and returning to fiscal sanity by reducing out of control federal spending have taken an optimistic turn in recent days. As per usual, politicians only get serious and truly come to the table at the 11th hour with their feet to the fire. Reference the deal to avert government shutdown in April. This is true of any opposing parties involved in high stakes negotiation. With their backs to the wall, a compromise tends to result. We see this playing out again as the President reported Thursday that Democrats and Republicans are now coming to the table "in a spirit of compromise" and had "a very constructive meeting" realizing that "there is going to be pain involved politically on all sides." There is no bigger issue facing the U.S. today. If we don't solve this debt crisis and reign in our spending binge, we won't have an economy worth being employed in, never mind one that leads the rapidly evolving and globalizing world.
Monday, November 1, 2010
PGBlog RoJo leads Feingold by 9 @ 53 in new poll 4 days out! Enthusiasm gap manifested in my talks with Wisco voters today.
PGBlog WaPo: At the start of the campaign, House Democrats' 39-seat majority seemed insurmountable. Democrats are in jeopardy from coast to coast.
PGBlog Pres Obama misread his mandate in lurching towards bigger government. His victory resulted from a desire to change Washington, not America.
DEMOCRATS AND OBAMA: “We can spend a trillion dollars we don’t have on pork and stuff.”
AMERICANS: “No … that’s not what we want. We’d really like you not to do that.”
DEMOCRATS: “You’re stupid. We’re doing it anyway.”
AMERICANS: “That’s not going to help us get jobs!”
DEMOCRATS: “Sure it will; millions of them … though they may be invisible. You’ll have to trust us they exist. And guess what else we’ll do: We’ll create a giant new government program to take over health care.”
AMERICANS: “That has nothing to do with jobs!”
DEMOCRATS: “We don’t care about that anymore. We really want a giant new health care program. We’re sure you’ll love it.”
AMERICANS: “Don’t pass that bill. You hear me? Absolutely do not pass that bill.”
DEMOCRATS: “Believe me; you’ll love it. It has … well, I don’t know what exactly is in the bill, but we’re sure it’s great.”
AMERICANS: “Listen to me: DO. NOT. PASS. THAT. BILL.”
DEMOCRATS: “You’re not the boss of me! We’re doing it anyway!”
AMERICANS: “Look what you did! Now the economy is way worse, we’re even deeper in debt, and we have a bunch of new laws we don’t want!”
DEMOCRATS: “You’re racist.”
AMERICANS: “Wha … How is that racist?”
DEMOCRATS: “Now you’re getting violent! Stop being violent and racist, you ignorant hillbillies! And remember to vote Democrat in November.”